![]() ![]() The next year (1992), HSBC took over Midland Bank and thus became one of the largest domestic banks in the United Kingdom. In 1991, the present parent legal entity, HSBC Holdings plc, was established in London and the historic Hong-Kong-based bank from whose initials the group took its name became that entity's fully-owned subsidiary. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation opened branches in Shanghai in 1865 and was first formally incorporated in 1866. HSBC traces its origin to a hong trading house in British Hong Kong. In 2021, HSBC had $10.8 trillion in assets under custody (AUC) and $4.9 trillion in assets under administration (AUA). It is the largest Europe-based bank by total assets, ahead of BNP Paribas, with US$2.953 trillion as of December 2021. At that point, gold will most likely begin to shine once again.HSBC is a British universal bank and financial services group headquartered in London, England, with unique historical and business links to East Asia and a highly multinational footprint. Ultimately though, it is almost inevitable the economy will feel the burn of all the rapid-fire rate increases that have been rolled out over the past year. This points to a sideways market over the next few months, with risks tilted to the downside. In other words, there isn’t much on the immediate horizon that can fuel upside in gold, as long as the Fed is keeping rates high and the economy is holding strong. That said, this is probably a longer-term story, perhaps around the end of this year or even beyond. With defensive demand also on the rise, such a scenario has the capacity to propel gold back towards the record high of $2,072 for a fourth time. A weaker economic data pulse could see investors flirting with the idea of Fed rate cuts, pushing yields and the dollar lower. Hence, there is a clear risk that the recent consolidation phase in gold concludes with a break lower, in which case the focus would turn towards the $1,855 region that also encompasses the 200-day moving average.įor gold to resume its journey towards new record highs, it would likely require recession concerns to resurface. ![]() That’s a difficult environment for bullion, as it implies higher bond yields and a relatively strong US dollar. Economic growth is still solid and the labor market is in good shape, which suggests interest rates are likely to remain elevated for a longer period of time. For now, the US economy remains fairly resilient. Looking ahead, the central question for gold prices is whether a recession has been averted, or simply delayed. When there are such massive buyer whales lurking in the market, which are less sensitive to prices than other players because they also have political motives in mind, it almost establishes a soft floor under gold prices, preventing any massive selloffs. Sovereign purchases are likely a game-changer for trading dynamics in gold. Other major sovereign buyers over the past year include Turkey and India. Beijing is trying to diversify its reserves, so it has been loading up on gold, which cannot be frozen if the geopolitical atmosphere turns colder. This helps to explain why China has been buying gold relentlessly over the past year. But its gold reserves that were held in Russia could not be frozen. In the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion, the United States and Europe deployed crippling sanctions against Russia, which included the freezing of the FX reserves it held in dollars and euros. ![]() The opposite effects are also true – gold becomes more attractive as yields fall and the dollar depreciates.īeyond interest rates, the dollar, and safe-haven demand, the fourth variable that has emerged as a major driver of gold lately is the purchase of bullion by central banks to raise their reserves. Similarly, since gold is generally priced in US dollars, a stronger greenback makes it more expensive for foreign investors to buy the metal. ![]() The precious metal does not pay any interest to hold, so it becomes less attractive as yields rise and investors can earn higher returns in bonds. Interest rate expectations and movements in the dollar are critical for gold. This reassessment also helped to breathe some life back into the US dollar. With fears about an imminent recession fading away, investors have recalibrated the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, pricing in higher rates for a longer period of time. This retreat and the ensuing consolidation phase reflect the latest developments in global markets. The market has been trapped between $1,935 and $1,975 over the last month, waiting for a catalyst to break out. After getting rejected for a third time from the record high of $2,072, gold prices have declined by around 6% to settle in a narrow sideways range. ![]()
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